BITCOIN (BTC): Where We Are Now, And The Big Week Ahead

07/09/2026

The last time we sat down with Bitcoin properly was back in February. We were down around $65,000, stuck inside a falling channel, and I said the whole game was whether buyers could defend that $60,000 to $63,000 floor. Well, they did. It got messy for a while; price slid all the way down to around $57,800 in June, but that floor broadly held, and since then Bitcoin has climbed all the way back to about $82 200.

So we've had a proper recovery. But now we've walked straight into one of the most interesting spots on the chart, at exactly the moment two huge news events are about to land. Let's read it together.

The Big Picture (Current Price Action)

Pull up the daily chart and read it left to right.

All through last year, Bitcoin churned sideways up high, near its record around $126,000, then rolled over into a long grind down. That grind bottomed out in June near $57,800. From there, buyers stepped in hard, and price has been climbing ever since, right back up to where we sit now, around $79,800.

Here's the important part. That climb has been strong enough to reclaim the two faster-moving averages, the green 21EMA and the orange 55EMA, which are now curling up underneath the price. That's real strength returning. But one honest caveat, because we don't cut corners here: the 55EMA hasn't yet crossed back above the slow red 200EMA line. Until that happens, I won't call this a full, confirmed uptrend. It's a strong recovery that still has a few boxes left to tick.

Above price, we have a strong Support and Resistance line carried over from the weekly chart, a level that has mattered before on the bigger timeframe. Price has run straight up to the underside of it. That makes it the single most important spot on the chart right now, the wall this whole recovery has to get through.

Key Levels (The Floors and Ceilings)

Here's where price is likely to find a wall or find help.

The ceiling directly overhead is the $82,500 area. As we said, that's a support and resistance line drawn from the weekly chart, a level the bigger timeframe respects. Bitcoin has to close above there and hold to prove this recovery is more than just a bounce. Until it does, that's the roof.

Above that, if it does break through, the next real shelf is around $93,000. IF it breaks that, we are back in a Bull Run. We would need to see Bitcoin make higher lows and higher highs, with the EMAs stacked in an uptrend (green - top, orange - middle, red - bottom) on the Daily.

Underneath us, the first floor to watch is the $65,000 to $66,000 zone, the shelf price reclaimed on the way up. Below that sits the June low around $57,800. And here's the part to be honest about: if Bitcoin fails to break $82,500, or breaks it but can't hold, we have to be prepared for a lower low on the weekly chart. A drop back through $57,800 would open the door toward the $45,000 area. That's not a prediction; it's the map. We watch the ceiling to know which map we're on.

Technical Vibe Check

Let me run Bitcoin through what I actually look at.

• Trend: the faster averages have turned up, and price is above them, a real change from February. But the 55 still hasn't crossed above the 200, so this is a strong recovery, not a confirmed uptrend yet.
• Momentum: stretched on the daily. The speedometer has pushed up into the overbought zone after this big run. It doesn't have to stop, but the easy energy is behind us, not ahead. It's arriving tired, right at the ceiling.

• Volatility: the spring has already released. That quiet, coiled reading we love to see before a move fired weeks ago, and it fired upward, which is what carried us from $57,800 up to here. It's not loaded and waiting anymore; it's mid-move.

Put it together, and you get a clear picture. Strong recovery, faster averages turning up, but price is now pressed against the $82,500 ceiling, overbought, and slightly out of breath. This is not a fresh, coiled setup. It's a market at a decision point.

Zooming In: The 4-Hour Chart

The daily gives us the big story. Dropping to the 4-hour shows us what's happening up close, right now, and it's genuinely interesting.

First, the shape. The 4-hour launched out of a quiet base around $63,000 to $64,000 in mid-August, ran hard to a high near $82,268, and has been drifting sideways just under that high ever since. The moving averages are still stacked upward from the run, but notice price has slipped back below the orange 55 right here. That's the short-term momentum cooling off while price rests, not a collapse, but worth seeing clearly.

Let's look at what our indicators tell us:

• Volume: the mid-August launch came on a huge spike, buyers showing up in force to power a real move. Since then, on the sideways drift, volume has dried up to calm, normal levels. Healthy pause, not a warning. But it means there's no fresh firepower behind the grind right now.
• Volatility (BBWP): this is the one that makes me sit up. It was pinned up in the hot, fully-expanded zone during the run (those red bars). Then over the last couple of days it collapsed, dropping hard to around 8%, right down near the floor of its range. That's not "cooling off," that's fully compressed. The spring isn't loading anymore; it's wound tight, coiled to the max, and it's this tight right as the news is about to hit. A reading this low almost always comes right before a big expansion move. It just won't tell us the direction, only that one is coming.

• Momentum (Stochastic): it was pinned in overbought during the push, but it has since rolled all the way down and is now sitting in the oversold zone, around 20, that blue band at the bottom. And here's the interesting part: right at the floor, the fast line has just started to tick up over the slow one. That little hook up out of oversold is one of the early signs we watch for before a move higher. It's not confirmed yet, and it's forming right under resistance and right into the news, so it's a "keep both eyes on it," not a green light.

So the 4-hour sharpens everything the daily told us. The big move already happened, and volume proved it was real. Price is now consolidating under the ceiling, volatility is compressing into a fresh coil, and momentum has reset to neutral. Everything is loaded and waiting. This is a market holding its breath, and next week is when it exhales.

The Big Week Ahead

And here's why this particular week matters more than most. Two enormous events are landing back-to-back, and both of them can move Bitcoin hard.

First, on Tuesday the 15th, the US Senate holds a key vote on something called the CLARITY Act. In plain terms, it's the biggest attempt yet to write clear rules for how crypto is treated in the United States. The industry has wanted this for years. If the vote goes well, it signals that proper rules are finally coming, which tends to make big, serious money more comfortable getting involved. If it stalls, that hope gets pushed down the road. It's a genuine coin-flip, and the market knows it.

Then, the very next day, Wednesday the 16th, comes the FOMC decision. FOMC stands for the committee at the US Federal Reserve that sets interest rates. This is the big one for every market, because it sets the price of money itself. Two things drop at once: whether they move rates, and their fresh forecast for where rates head next. If they lean toward cheaper money, risky assets like Bitcoin usually like it. If they sound cautious, it can take the wind out of the sails.

So in a week, we get a crypto-specific coin-flip and then the biggest macro event there is. Two big unknowns, one after the other, arriving exactly as price sits pinned under that $82,500 ceiling. That's a lot of fuel meeting a very decisive spot on the chart.

What This Means And What To Watch For

I'll be honest with you, this is a watching week, not a chasing week. When price is stretched under major resistance and two coin-flip events are about to hit within a day of each other, the smart move isn't to guess the outcome; it's to let it happen and read the reaction.

So here's what I'm actually watching. If Bitcoin pushes through $82,500 and closes above it with conviction, especially if the news gives it a reason, that's the recovery graduating from "nice bounce" into something more serious, and it opens the road toward that $102,000 shelf. If instead it gets rejected here and rolls back over, I want to see whether that $65,000 to $66,000 floor holds. That floor holding on a pullback would actually be healthy. It breaking would tell me the recovery needs more time.

Either way, the chart has done its job. It's told us exactly where the line is. Now we let the week play out and see which side of it we land on.

Mom Tip: News weeks are where beginners get hurt the most, because the temptation to "trade the headline" is enormous. But price often whips violently in both directions in the minutes after big news, hunting out anyone who jumped in early. The calm move is to let the dust settle. A trend you enter a day late but with a clear head beats a trade you rushed into on a headline and a hope. Watch this one. Take notes. There's no prize for being first.

The content in this post is for educational purposes only and reflects our personal perspectives on the market. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions. We are sharing our ideas, not telling you what to do with your money.

25/02/2026

The Big Picture (Current Price Action)

We are currently in a high-stakes "tug-of-war." After a rough start to the week, Bitcoin found some energy near the bottom of its current trading channel.

As of this morning, we are trading around $65,080. It’s a bit of a relief bounce from yesterday’s lows, but we aren't out of the woods just yet!

Key Levels (Where the Action Is)

The "descending channel" from the chart is still the boss here. Here is where the price is likely to get stuck or find help today:

• Critical Support (The Floor): The $60,000 – $63,000 zone. This is the big one, ladies! Buyers have been defending this area like a fortress. If we stay above $63,000 today, it's a sign that the "relief rally" has legs.
• Major Resistance (The Ceiling): $66,300 – $67,500. This is the immediate "stop sign." Bitcoin needs to break above this (and the 200-day moving average near $66.5k) to prove that this isn't just a tiny hop before another drop.
• The Safety Net: If things get messy and $60,000 fails, our next major "catch" area is down near $58,500 (a key long-term average) and then $53,000.

Technical Vibe Check

• The Channel: We are still technically in a "downward slide" (that falling channel on your chart). Think of it like a playground slide—we need a lot of momentum to climb back up to the top of it.
• The FIB (Fibonacci): The $58,800 level is our "Golden Ratio" support. As long as we are above that, the long-term bull market dream is still alive.
• Momentum: There’s a tiny bit of green on the screen today (+2-3%), but volume is still a bit shy. We want to see more "buying power" (those green bars at the bottom) to really trust this move.

Volume & Sentiment

Unlike the "bleeding" low-volume drops of early January, today’s price action is accompanied by a spike in volume. This indicates a "liquidity flush" or capitulation event where leveraged positions are being wiped out. While painful, these high-volume spikes often precede a local bottom if buyers can step in and absorb the selling pressure.

Summary: We are in a "wait-and-see" zone. The $60,000 support is the anchor for the entire market. A strong bounce here could lead to a retest of $72,000, but a break below could signal the start of a deeper "crypto winter" phase heading toward $50,000.

What to Watch For

The goal for the next 24 hours is to see if Bitcoin can turn $65,000 from a "ceiling" into a "floor."

Mom Tip: In a downward channel like this, it’s often safer to wait for a confirmed breakout above the "ceiling" ($67,500) rather than trying to catch a falling knife at the bottom.